Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
