The Astonishing Scoring Streak Fuels The Villans' Unlikely Title Charge

It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Triumph

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

  • The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the player he was in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.

Rose Shaffer
Rose Shaffer

Elena Voss is a tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist with over a decade of experience in startup ecosystems.