Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
